Tensions Increase Between Niger Junta and West African Neighbor States

Niamey/Abuja - Tensions continue to rise between the military junta in Niger and its West African neighbor states, over two weeks after the coup. It remains uncertain whether the West African community's regional body, Ecowas, will resort to military action to free President Mohamed Bazoum and his family, who are being held by the junta.

Ecowas heads of state have decided to establish a rapid response force to restore constitutional order in Niger. However, they emphasized that peaceful means would remain a priority. According to US reports, the Nigerien coupists have threatened to kill Bazoum if there is a military intervention.

The military assumed power in Niger on July 26th, suspending the constitution. The democratically elected President Bazoum has been detained since then. Under Bazoum's leadership, Niger was one of the last strategic partners of the West in the fight against the advance of Islamist terrorists in the Sahel region. The country, which is three and a half times the size of Germany, is also located on a key migration route through the Sahara Desert to Libya. The German Bundeswehr maintains a military base in the capital city of Niamey with approximately 100 soldiers. The United States and France also have significant military bases in the country.

The ambiguous announcement by Ecowas raised many questions. Although Ecowas mentioned the deployment of the rapid response force, it did not provide details on the composition of the force or a possible timeline for intervention. The announcement seemed aimed at maintaining pressure on the new military authorities without immediately creating military facts on the ground.

"The statement did not indicate which countries would deploy troops and finance the mission, meaning that the formation of such a force will take time and allow for a peaceful resolution," said Mucahid Durmaz, a West Africa analyst at consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft.

Prior to the Ecowas announcement, only Senegal, Ivory Coast, and Benin among the 15 member states had expressed readiness to provide troops for a possible military intervention. Nigeria, with a population of 220 million, the most populous country in Africa, would likely contribute the largest portion to such a force, according to experts. Although Nigeria has one of the largest armies in Africa, it is also grappling with significant security challenges, especially along its 1,600-kilometer-long border with Niger. The military governments in Mali and Burkina Faso had signaled support for the coup in Niger in the event of an Ecowas attack.

Ecowas has previously conducted interventions, but always acted at the invitation of the respective state, as was the case in Gambia in 2017. The tool of such rapid response forces is regulated between the African Union and the respective regional blocs, but it is typically associated with scenarios involving the prevention of serious human rights violations.

"We are really in uncharted territory here. There is no precedent for what Ecowas is trying to do, and it is certainly not something this rapid response force has ever been trained for," said Cameron Hudson, Africa analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to CNN. "We are talking about a hostage situation where the president of the country is essentially being held as a human shield against this military intervention. So we are talking about going in, freeing him somehow, and then reinstating him against the will of the entire national military." The coupists have some level of support among the population.

Meanwhile, concern is growing for ousted President Bazoum. The 63-year-old has been held in his residence for 16 days. According to the "New York Times," based on a report from the US news agency Associated Press, a US diplomat claims the junta threatened to kill Bazoum in the event of a military intervention. This threat has sparked global outrage and further calls for Bazoum's release.

"After depriving him of electricity and telephone access for several days, the coupists are now preventing him from seeing his personal physician, among other things. Even access to food is being denied," said Moussa Oumarou, Bazoum's deputy chief of staff, to the Deutsche Presse-Agentur. His wife and son are also still being held. According to Oumarou, the coupists have detained around 100 relatives of the ousted government, including the son of former President Mahamadou Issoufou.

The African Union stated that it supports the measures taken by the West African regional body Ecowas to restore constitutional order and once again called for the immediate release of Bazoum, his family members, and his government.

Bundesentwicklungsministerin Svenja Schulze continues to believe that a peaceful solution is possible following the coup in Niger. "No one has died so far in this coup," said the SPD politician on Deutschlandfunk. "We have seen different outcomes in other coups. And that's why I still see a possibility of peaceful solutions if the pressure is really great." She emphasized that the regional body Ecowas has now significantly pushed for this, saying, "There is enormous pressure." This must be supported internationally.

Source of content: OOO News 2023-08-11 News

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