Regional Mediation Efforts for Niger Crisis Collapse as Deadline for Military Intervention Nears

Regional mediation efforts to reverse the coup in Niger and restore its democracy collapsed as tensions escalate ahead of the Sunday deadline for possible military intervention by other West African countries. The plan to use force against the Niger junta, led by Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani, was finalized by the region's defense chiefs in Nigeria's capital, Abuja, but still needs approval from their political leaders. If former president Mohamed Bazoum is not reinstated, ECOWAS is prepared to intervene militarily. However, the coup has received support from some soldiers, including the Nigerien army command.

Niger's neighbors Mali and Burkina Faso, which both border the country, have chosen to side with the junta, along with Guinea. This division within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) complicates any potential military intervention, making it a split family affair. Chad, which also borders Niger, has tried to mediate between the coup plotters and ECOWAS. Algeria and Libya, neither of which are ECOWAS members, further influence the dynamics of any potential military intervention through land, leaving Nigeria's border with Niger as the main access route.

The military strategy for intervention in land-locked Niger remains unclear. With Bazoum being held in the capital, Niamey, it is expected that the focus will start there. Niger, with a landmass surpassing one million square kilometers, provides some territorial advantage. Nigeria, Niger's longtime ally and the current chair of ECOWAS, is expected to take a leading role in any intervention. It boasts the largest military strength in West Africa, with over 200,000 personnel.

The challenge lies not only in the potential military intervention but also in the consequences it may have in Niger and the broader region. A military intervention could escalate into a conflict between forces outside Africa, with various actors supporting the restoration of democracy or the junta. Strategic allies like the United States and France, who see Niger as an important partner in the fight against terrorism in the Sahel, are on opposite sides from Russia and its private military contractor, Wagner, who have allied with Mali and Burkina Faso.

Even if an intervention were successful, there are concerns about the aftermath. ECOWAS troops stationed in the country as anti-coup forces for an extended period of time could damage the legitimacy of President Bazoum and undermine democracy in both Niger and the region. This scenario would further complicate an already complex situation.

For Nigeria, leading the ECOWAS intervention in Niger is not without challenges. The country's military is already stretched thin, facing armed groups like bandits and Boko Haram within its own borders. Shifting attention and resources to a military intervention in Niger could divert efforts from tackling these internal problems, potentially exacerbating the situation.

The Niger crisis and the potential for military intervention have implications for the global market and security. Niger's role as a strategic partner in counterterrorism efforts and its significant uranium supply are of particular concern to the international community. The outcome of this crisis could not only impact Niger's future but also have far-reaching consequences for regional stability and the fight against extremism in West Africa.

Source of content: OOO News 2023-08-05 News

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